Been in agencies long enough to see the same pattern play out, regardless of size. Independent shops, mid-sized networks, even the big holding companies - they all end up in the same mess. The root cause isn't the agency leadership or even the creative work. It's procurement. they dictate the rates, strip down the scope, and hand brand teams budgets that look good on a spreadsheet but have zero relation to reality. Wall Street demands profit margins, so something's got to give.
The supply/demand balance is completely skewed. Way more agencies than genuine clients, and then you've got consolidation on the buy side - Amazon, Meta, Google hoovering up smaller brands, centralising media buying. that forces every agency to fight over table scraps. Newer outfits undercut on fees to win the pitch, then realise they can't sustain it without burning out staff. It's a race to the bottom.
AI is going to accelerate that further. Once the industry works out how to sell output without billing by headcount - basically an AI agent doing the work instead of a junior team - you'll see roles drop off a cliff. already happening. last summer at one of the big networks, they cut 90 % of junior creative roles (art and copy) and pushed those responsibilities onto ACDs. That's the near future for media buying, planning, and a lot of SEO too. Nobody's safe when the SOW stops being "hours" and starts being "outcome."
