Aha, I love this question because it gets right to the heart of why so many people chase the wrong optimisation target. You're not a professional, but you're already asking better questions than most who run six-figure budgets.
The short answer: yes, your cheap clicks are almost certainly local, high-intent queries like "product near me" or "product + city". the expensive clicks come from auctions where national players (think Walmart, Home Depot) are also bidding - that pushes the bid floor up, and Google labels those users as "higher value" because they're harder to reach.
But here's the trap: a more expensive click isn't necessarily a better customer. it's just a click that cost more to win. If you raise your budget and see estimated conversions double, that's often because you're now entering more expensive auctions - not because those users convert at a higher rate. you're just paying more for the same conversion, which destroys your CPA without improving lifetime value.
What I'd do in your shoes: segment your campaigns by match type and location. Let your exact match / local keywords run with a lower bid cap and track that separately. Then run a separate campaign for broader terms, but cap it so it doesn't cannibalise your budget. Also, absolutely set up conversion tracking that ties back to query - even something as simple as UTM tags per ad group. It's a nightmare to do retroactively, but once you have it, you'll stop guessing.
The real lesson here is that Google wants you to spend more. They'll show you rosy estimates to get you to raise the budget. But if you can't measure which query led to which sale, you're just flying blind. Start with the data, then adjust.
