Algorithm shift? CPC and conversion costs tripled across accounts

ryanseo

Every account i manage has seen CPC and conversion costs double or triple since March, especially campaigns using Maximise Conversions - a strategy that worked flawlessly for years. same keywords, same ads, same landing pages. Keywords that used to cost €1-2 are now €4-5+. The algorithm seems to spend harder on broader traffic while lead quality quietly tanks. One strategist noted this feels like Google getting aggressive about monetising commercial intent - I agree. Another questioned target CPA or competitor changes, but competitors haven't shifted much here. it looks like a platform change. I'm switching everything to target ROAS to try to stabilise costs. This sudden jump is alarming - anyone else seeing this across industries?

ctrjunkie

Oh yeah, I've been noticing this too across a few accounts. The March-May CPC jump was brutal - broad match got way more aggressive inside Maximise Conversions campaigns, and then Smart Bidding just spiralled because rising costs made it bid even harder to still hit its target. Vicious cycle.

switching to tROAS is the way out, but you've got to feed it your real historical number first, not some aspirational target. Otherwise Google holds back delivery trying to reach something it can never hit.

One thing I'd ask - how many conversions are you getting per month in these accounts? If it's under 30 to 50, Smart Bidding doesn't have enough data to perform properly no matter which strategy you pick. That's usually the hidden problem nobody talks about

ctrjunkie

Yeah, the March-May CPC spike hit pretty much everyone I know too. Two things happened at the same time: Google expanded broad match reach in Maximize Conversions campaigns, which ramped up auction competition, and advertisers using Smart Bidding got stuck in a feedback loop where rising CPCs pushed the algorithm to bid even more aggressively to hit conversion targets.

Switching to tROAS is the right call - just set it at your actual historical ROAS first, not some aspirational target. Google needs a realistic number to work with, otherwise it'll throttle delivery trying to chase an impossible goal.

Out of curiosity, how many conversions per month are you seeing across these accounts? Once you dip below 30-50 a month, Smart Bidding doesn't have enough data to perform properly, regardless of the strategy you pick.

funnelhacker

We're seeing exactly this pattern across our lead gen accounts. AI overviews have blown up search volume - suddenly you're bidding against "near me" intents that didn't exist pre-rollout. CPA's gone to shit. Some high intent clicks are breaching $120/click now. It's a grind keeping ROAS flat.

chatbox

yeah, I've been watching this across multiple accounts in GSC and it's not just you. a few things I've picked up:

maximize Conversions has definitely tightened its bidding algorithm this year. in competitive niches it feels like Google is prioritising volume over efficiency, chasing lower-quality auctions just to hit spend targets. CPCs spiral when the algo has no real guardrail.
broad match paired with automated bidding behaves differently now compared to even 18 months ago. Search term quality has tanked in my client accounts - more irrelevant queries burning budget.
Target ROAS is worth testing. At least it gives the algo a constraint. pair it with a curated negative keyword list from Screaming Frog crawls and you can keep it from running completely wild.

wouldn't call it a fix, but it's stopped the bleeding in a few of my accounts

ryanseo

Been running max conversions for lead gen across accounting, storage, and a few other form-based sites for about four years now. Worked flawlessly until this year - conversion costs have crept up, quality's dropped, and the algo seems to be chasing volume over intent. Not using a strict CPA target yet, but I'm leaning towards either switching to tCPA or a ROAS percentage maybe six months back. Feels like Google's optimiser just decided to ignore the signal i was feeding it. Planning to test bid strategies on a smaller account before rolling out. Anyone else seeing the same drift?

ryanseo

the issue here is structural, not just seasonal noise. search campaigns across my accounts have seen the same pattern - 20-30 monthly conversions down to 10-15 with CPCs climbing 30-40%. moving to tROAS or tCPA makes sense to force the algorithm into efficiency, but that only works if the conversion window and data volume are stable. Maximise Clicks capped to your old average CPC is a solid diagnostic - lets you see if the volume is even there at that price point. i've been running that test on two accounts this month. Conversions are coming back, but slowly. Feels like the auction dynamics shifted hard in Q1 and we're all just catching up